Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Paul wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 51.0% vs Stamkos 53.8% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 57.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 69.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 68.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Paul
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Paul
Stamkos
Last 5: Paul 0-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
5
Paul
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (312)
54.1% (460)
-0.6%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
64.2% (106)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
29.4% (34)
45.3% (106)
-15.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Paul is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Paul shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Paul
Stamkos
Home
45.8% (153)
58.2% (328)
Away
55.0% (220)
50.6% (344)
By Period
Paul
Stamkos
P1
55.9%
57.5%
P2
48.9%
53.1%
P3
50.0%
52.7%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
51.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |