Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 13-3 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 72.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 53.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Paul
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
13
(16 meetings)
3
13
Paul
Stamkos
Last 10: Paul 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
12
Paul
Stamkos
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
50.4% (9,799)
+2.1%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
55.1% (1,725)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
49.7% (825)
-3.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Paul shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Paul
Stamkos
Home
52.7% (2,412)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Paul
Stamkos
P1
53.9%
49.1%
P2
51.0%
52.7%
P3
52.0%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 15:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |