Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 49.9%). Paul wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.0% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+0.1%)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 74.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 72.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Paul
Stamkos
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (666)
49.3% (670)
-0.5%
Power Play
53.8% (65)
53.7% (121)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (55)
33.3% (3)
+26.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Paul shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Paul
Stamkos
Home
49.7% (348)
54.0% (400)
Away
50.2% (438)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Paul
Stamkos
P1
51.0%
48.6%
P2
47.4%
54.5%
P3
51.5%
45.4%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%