Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +23.8% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.3% vs Zegras 35.4% (+23.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 57.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 87.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 77.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 87.3%
87.3%
12.7%
Paul
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Paul
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (327)
29.6% (230)
+23.6%
Power Play
61.4% (57)
32.1% (56)
+29.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
100.0% (1)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Paul shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Paul
Zegras
Home
54.6% (183)
30.6% (147)
Away
53.6% (233)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Paul
Zegras
P1
56.3%
33.0%
P2
54.8%
31.7%
P3
52.4%
25.6%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.0%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |