Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.4% vs Zegras 41.5% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 51.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 95.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 88.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Paul
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Paul
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
0
Paul
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (644)
39.4% (510)
+13.6%
Power Play
37.5% (24)
47.1% (34)
-9.6%
On even strength, Paul has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Paul shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Paul
Zegras
Home
52.5% (516)
42.3% (272)
Away
47.1% (329)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Paul
Zegras
P1
47.6%
37.6%
P2
48.4%
41.5%
P3
54.5%
40.8%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |