Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs Zegras 42.6% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 75.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 54.7%
Neutral zone
Zegras 53.9%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Paul
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Paul
Zegras
Last 5: Paul 2-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Paul
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
41.1% (559)
+12.7%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
50.0% (12)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
50.0% (2)
-2.6%
On even strength, Paul has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Paul shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Paul
Zegras
Home
54.2% (450)
45.7% (247)
Away
53.3% (471)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Paul
Zegras
P1
58.2%
45.5%
P2
50.6%
36.8%
P3
52.9%
41.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |