Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Zegras 39.2% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 59.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 95.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 87.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 84.5%
84.5%
15.5%
Paul
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Paul
Zegras
Last 8: Paul 5-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
4
2
Paul
Zegras
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
38.6% (1,669)
+13.9%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
38.5% (148)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
28.6% (7)
+18.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Paul
Zegras
Home
52.7% (2,412)
39.9% (882)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Paul
Zegras
P1
53.9%
40.2%
P2
51.0%
38.0%
P3
52.0%
37.7%
OT
50.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
51.4%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |