Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.1% vs Zegras 40.2% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 54.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 94.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 85.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Paul
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Paul
Zegras
Last 8: Paul 5-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
4
2
Paul
Zegras
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,746)
39.5% (1,582)
+13.0%
Power Play
56.1% (469)
41.4% (133)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (571)
28.6% (7)
+18.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,017).
Paul shoots left. Zegras is 39.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,170).
Home / Away
Paul
Zegras
Home
52.6% (2,384)
40.6% (833)
Away
51.7% (2,403)
38.7% (889)
By Period
Paul
Zegras
P1
53.8%
41.2%
P2
51.1%
39.1%
P3
51.9%
38.5%
OT
46.9%
35.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
52.2%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |