Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +19.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Schmaltz wins 37.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 40.4% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-19.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 83.1%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 70.2%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 86.4%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
11
(13 meetings)
2
11
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Last 10: Schmaltz 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
37.6% (237)
57.1% (1,367)
-19.5%
Power Play
32.5% (40)
59.4% (286)
-26.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
52.5% (257)
-2.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schmaltz is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (204).
Schmaltz shoots right. O'Reilly is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (709).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Home
42.6% (129)
59.2% (936)
Away
32.2% (152)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
P1
38.8%
57.3%
P2
29.4%
57.5%
P3
42.2%
55.0%
OT
33.3%
71.1%
Final 5 min
36.4%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
37.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 14:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 04:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 18:58 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 09:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 00:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 07:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2 | 09:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2 | 03:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |