Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.8% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 53.8%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 53.3%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 52.0%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Last 5: Schmaltz 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
0
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (309)
55.0% (1,084)
-16.5%
Power Play
53.2% (79)
56.8% (303)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
40.3% (149)
-15.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Schmaltz shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Home
38.0% (184)
54.8% (759)
Away
43.5% (216)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
P1
40.3%
55.3%
P2
39.9%
51.9%
P3
40.7%
54.2%
OT
70.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
41.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |