Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 49.4% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 70.9%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 65.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 69.5%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (268)
56.2% (983)
-8.1%
Power Play
50.5% (91)
55.5% (254)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
52.0% (102)
+6.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Schmaltz shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Home
49.0% (206)
56.2% (697)
Away
49.4% (170)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
P1
53.6%
54.5%
P2
46.2%
55.5%
P3
50.4%
57.1%
OT
16.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%