Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Schmaltz wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 44.0% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-16.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 20-8 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 88.2%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 92.5%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 92.5%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
20
(28 meetings)
8
20
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Last 10: Schmaltz 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
9
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
6
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (485)
58.6% (841)
-16.1%
Power Play
45.1% (51)
59.9% (207)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
58.1% (148)
+41.9%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schmaltz is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (419).
Schmaltz shoots right. O'Reilly is 64.4% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Home
45.0% (258)
59.8% (594)
Away
40.9% (279)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
P1
47.0%
61.7%
P2
42.7%
56.2%
P3
38.4%
59.5%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 1 | 19:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 3 | 03:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 19:42 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2021 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2021 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2021 | OT | 03:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2021 | OT | 01:16 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 19:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 07:27 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 01:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 15:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:45 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |