Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.5% vs Steel 50.2% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 17-15 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 75.3%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 60.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 67.4%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Schmaltz
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
17
(32 meetings)
15
17
Schmaltz
Steel
Last 10: Schmaltz 7-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
3
5
Schmaltz
Steel
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
4
7
Schmaltz
Steel
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
8
5
Schmaltz
Steel
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
41.2% (3,399)
50.6% (2,876)
-9.4%
Power Play
47.1% (649)
62.6% (179)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (134)
37.4% (254)
+10.4%
On power play, Steel has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Schmaltz shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Steel
Home
42.7% (2,089)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
41.9% (2,093)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Schmaltz
Steel
P1
41.1%
51.9%
P2
42.9%
49.5%
P3
43.0%
49.6%
OT
42.4%
41.9%
Final 5 min
42.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 18:24 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 03:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 24, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:42 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 14:59 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 01:53 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 1 | 05:07 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 07:12 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 00:28 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Sam Steel |