Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Aho 50.0% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 70.4%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 61.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 61.6%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Schmaltz
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Schmaltz
Aho
Last 10: Schmaltz 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Schmaltz
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
1
Schmaltz
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
5
Schmaltz
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (665)
49.9% (851)
-4.0%
Power Play
46.8% (111)
53.5% (144)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
43.3% (60)
+6.7%
On power play, Aho has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Schmaltz shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Aho
Home
44.7% (409)
53.2% (554)
Away
47.6% (391)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Schmaltz
Aho
P1
40.3%
49.1%
P2
47.6%
50.8%
P3
51.0%
49.7%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
40.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |