Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.5% vs Aho 51.2% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 79.5%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 87.7%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 79.1%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Schmaltz
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
18
(28 meetings)
10
18
Schmaltz
Aho
Last 10: Schmaltz 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Schmaltz
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
7
Schmaltz
Aho
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
7
Schmaltz
Aho
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
41.2% (3,399)
50.1% (6,619)
-8.9%
Power Play
47.1% (649)
58.9% (1,310)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (134)
46.3% (464)
+1.5%
On power play, Aho has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Schmaltz shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Aho
Home
42.7% (2,089)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
41.9% (2,093)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Schmaltz
Aho
P1
41.1%
51.1%
P2
42.9%
52.0%
P3
43.0%
50.7%
OT
42.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
42.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:10 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |