Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 49.4% vs Aho 54.9% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 59.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 68.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 68.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Schmaltz
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Schmaltz
Aho
Last 7: Schmaltz 4-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
0
Schmaltz
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Schmaltz
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (268)
54.5% (870)
-6.4%
Power Play
50.5% (91)
62.4% (266)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
37.1% (62)
+21.7%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Schmaltz shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Aho
Home
49.0% (206)
53.9% (603)
Away
49.4% (170)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Schmaltz
Aho
P1
53.6%
54.1%
P2
46.2%
55.0%
P3
50.4%
57.4%
OT
16.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:10 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |