Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Suzuki 49.3% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 34-22 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
Suzuki 67.5%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 61.7%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 70.3%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
McDavid
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
22
(56 meetings)
34
22
McDavid
Suzuki
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
13
4
McDavid
Suzuki
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
12
9
McDavid
Suzuki
21 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
McDavid
Suzuki
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
49.4% (6,327)
-1.7%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
50.7% (1,338)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
43.6% (456)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Suzuki is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,913).
Home / Away
McDavid
Suzuki
Home
49.3% (4,570)
51.0% (3,997)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
47.6% (4,124)
By Period
McDavid
Suzuki
P1
46.5%
48.8%
P2
48.7%
49.1%
P3
48.3%
50.2%
OT
40.9%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 03:48 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 02:37 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |