Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Suzuki on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Suzuki 52.4% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 73.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 63.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
Suzuki
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Suzuki
Hertl
Last 9: Suzuki 5-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
3
0
Suzuki
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Suzuki
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Suzuki
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Suzuki
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,096)
57.0% (718)
-5.7%
Power Play
59.9% (157)
64.9% (188)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
56.9% (58)
44.2% (77)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Suzuki has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Suzuki is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (961).
Suzuki shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Suzuki
Hertl
Home
54.2% (638)
59.2% (463)
Away
51.0% (673)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Suzuki
Hertl
P1
51.5%
56.3%
P2
53.3%
55.4%
P3
52.4%
60.5%
OT
58.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
52.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 03:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:44 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 09:17 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |