Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Sturm 55.2% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Nelson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Nelson
Sturm
Last 7: Nelson 1-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
4
Nelson
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nelson
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
56.1% (716)
-9.2%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
67.7% (31)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
51.1% (133)
-26.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sturm
Home
48.9% (521)
55.6% (412)
Away
45.5% (516)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Nelson
Sturm
P1
45.9%
59.6%
P2
48.0%
52.0%
P3
48.0%
55.5%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 16:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 05:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |