Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pederson wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pederson 50.0% vs Sturm 50.9% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pederson 61.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 74.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 55.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Pederson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pederson
Sturm
Last 5: Pederson 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pederson
1
0
Pederson
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pederson
1
0
Pederson
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Pederson
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pederson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (70)
50.8% (126)
+0.6%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
50.0% (2)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
66.7% (6)
-66.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pederson is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (62).
Pederson shoots right. Sturm is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (46).
Home / Away
Pederson
Sturm
Home
55.3% (38)
54.1% (74)
Away
45.0% (40)
48.3% (60)
By Period
Pederson
Sturm
P1
38.7%
48.1%
P2
62.5%
62.0%
P3
52.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
30.8%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pederson
46.0%▼
49.0%
50.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 07:20 | Neutral | Lane Pederson |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 13:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 06:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 02:29 | Defensive | Lane Pederson |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |