Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 43.8% vs Sturm 51.0% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 78.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 81.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 80.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
MacKinnon
Sturm
Last 5: MacKinnon 0-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
MacKinnon
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (743)
55.6% (45)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
25.9% (27)
25.0% (4)
+0.9%
On even strength, Sturm has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (646).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (24).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
46.4% (394)
42.9% (21)
Away
40.1% (446)
60.7% (28)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
44.4%
56.3%
P2
38.2%
57.1%
P3
46.4%
47.4%
Final 5 min
44.1%
69.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 13:33 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |