Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Sturm 55.2% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 91.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 74.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 85.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
MacKinnon
Sturm
Last 6: MacKinnon 0-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
MacKinnon
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
4
MacKinnon
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
56.1% (716)
-11.4%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
67.7% (31)
-30.9%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
51.1% (133)
+13.9%
On power play, Sturm has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
49.4% (553)
55.6% (412)
Away
40.0% (615)
56.0% (468)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
45.3%
59.6%
P2
42.7%
52.0%
P3
45.1%
55.5%
OT
46.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2023 | OT | 00:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 12:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 01:22 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 01:16 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |