Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Krebs 45.9% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Krebs 56.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 64.3%
Neutral zone
Krebs 54.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Sturm
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Sturm
Krebs
Last 8: Sturm 4-4 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Krebs
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Krebs
1
3
Sturm
Krebs
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
45.5% (501)
+10.6%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
50.0% (20)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
37.1% (35)
+14.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Krebs is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Home / Away
Sturm
Krebs
Home
55.6% (412)
43.9% (285)
Away
56.0% (468)
46.5% (271)
By Period
Sturm
Krebs
P1
59.6%
45.4%
P2
52.0%
50.9%
P3
55.5%
39.7%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.8%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 16:20 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:06 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:38 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |