Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Sturm wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Krebs 49.2% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 72.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 88.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Sturm
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Sturm
Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Krebs
1
2
Sturm
Krebs
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
5
0
Sturm
Krebs
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
49.5% (560)
+12.6%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
52.6% (38)
+22.4%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
43.3% (67)
-4.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Sturm shoots left. Krebs is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Sturm
Krebs
Home
61.8% (191)
49.4% (314)
Away
56.3% (231)
48.7% (351)
By Period
Sturm
Krebs
P1
58.0%
47.0%
P2
57.9%
50.5%
P3
60.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |