Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Krebs 45.9% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 15-6 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 76.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 96.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 94.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Sturm
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
6
(21 meetings)
15
6
Sturm
Krebs
Last 10: Sturm 8-2 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
3
Sturm
Krebs
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Sturm
Krebs
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
8
0
Sturm
Krebs
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
46.0% (2,159)
+11.1%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
52.5% (99)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
38.6% (171)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Krebs is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,544).
Home / Away
Sturm
Krebs
Home
57.1% (1,614)
45.7% (1,182)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
45.8% (1,247)
By Period
Sturm
Krebs
P1
56.5%
45.9%
P2
54.9%
46.4%
P3
57.4%
44.8%
OT
60.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.9%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:01 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 07:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 16:20 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:06 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:38 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |