Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Thomas 52.7% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 59.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 87.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 63.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Sturm
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Sturm
Thomas
Last 8: Sturm 6-2 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Sturm
Thomas
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
53.6% (924)
+2.5%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
55.2% (181)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
44.0% (116)
+7.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Sturm shoots left. Thomas is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (869).
Home / Away
Sturm
Thomas
Home
55.6% (412)
53.6% (606)
Away
56.0% (468)
52.2% (615)
By Period
Sturm
Thomas
P1
59.6%
48.2%
P2
52.0%
55.3%
P3
55.5%
55.2%
OT
60.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
56.8%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 12:12 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 15:30 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 07:57 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |