Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Couturier 52.6% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Couturier 63.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 74.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.4%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Sturm
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Sturm
Couturier
Last 10: Sturm 6-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
3
Sturm
Couturier
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
52.5% (11,063)
+4.6%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
59.7% (1,280)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
48.5% (1,816)
+2.5%
On even strength, Sturm has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (8,920).
Home / Away
Sturm
Couturier
Home
57.1% (1,614)
53.4% (7,147)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
51.8% (7,019)
By Period
Sturm
Couturier
P1
56.5%
52.5%
P2
54.9%
52.6%
P3
57.4%
52.9%
OT
60.6%
49.4%
Final 5 min
56.9%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 17:05 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 02:39 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |