Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 54.1% vs Monahan 53.1% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 80.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 72.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 54.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Sturm
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Sturm
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (233)
53.8% (664)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (74)
50.0% (62)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sturm is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Sturm shoots left. Monahan is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Sturm
Monahan
Home
54.4% (149)
54.8% (405)
Away
56.3% (158)
52.2% (458)
By Period
Sturm
Monahan
P1
57.1%
49.6%
P2
55.0%
53.9%
P3
53.7%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
65.0%
Final 5 min
55.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |