Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Sturm wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Monahan 54.5% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 78.0%
Defensive zone
Monahan 53.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 67.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Sturm
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
8
(8 meetings)
0
8
Sturm
Monahan
Last 8: Sturm 0-8 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
7
Sturm
Monahan
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Sturm
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
57.1% (871)
+3.5%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
53.1% (262)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
44.6% (139)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Sturm shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Sturm
Monahan
Home
61.6% (451)
55.3% (644)
Away
58.2% (376)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Sturm
Monahan
P1
55.9%
53.9%
P2
58.9%
55.3%
P3
64.6%
54.4%
OT
70.6%
76.5%
Final 5 min
59.5%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:37 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:16 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2023 | OT | 03:23 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |