Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Monahan 52.8% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 77.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 73.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 50.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Sturm
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Sturm
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
53.2% (823)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
48.4% (95)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Sturm
Monahan
Home
53.0% (168)
54.6% (529)
Away
56.0% (193)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Sturm
Monahan
P1
58.2%
49.0%
P2
53.2%
55.4%
P3
52.3%
53.6%
OT
100.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
55.7%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |