Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 52.6%). Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 40.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 51.0% vs Monahan 52.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 65.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 74.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 57.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Sturm
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Sturm
Monahan
Last 6: Sturm 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Sturm
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Sturm
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (45)
52.1% (858)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
33.3% (9)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sturm is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (25).
Sturm shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Home / Away
Sturm
Monahan
Home
42.9% (21)
52.6% (504)
Away
60.7% (28)
52.6% (540)
By Period
Sturm
Monahan
P1
56.3%
56.7%
P2
57.1%
52.1%
P3
47.4%
48.1%
Final 5 min
69.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 12:41 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |