Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 64.3% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Wright 45.1% (+14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 72.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 63.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 63.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Sturm
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Sturm
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wright
1
2
Sturm
Wright
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
43.9% (758)
+18.2%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
50.7% (67)
+24.3%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
40.0% (5)
-1.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Sturm shoots left. Wright is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Sturm
Wright
Home
61.8% (191)
46.3% (406)
Away
56.3% (231)
42.7% (424)
By Period
Sturm
Wright
P1
58.0%
46.8%
P2
57.9%
42.6%
P3
60.6%
44.4%
Final 5 min
58.3%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |