Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Wright 43.3% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Wright 62.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 73.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Sturm
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
8
(18 meetings)
10
8
Sturm
Wright
Last 10: Sturm 7-3 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
Sturm
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
8
3
Sturm
Wright
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
2
3
Sturm
Wright
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
42.6% (1,318)
+14.5%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
45.8% (131)
+15.5%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
33.3% (6)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
Sturm
Wright
Home
57.1% (1,614)
44.2% (746)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
41.5% (709)
By Period
Sturm
Wright
P1
56.5%
44.4%
P2
54.9%
40.7%
P3
57.4%
44.0%
OT
60.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 19:52 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 14:19 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 05:16 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 02:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |