Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Sturm wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Wright 41.4% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 55.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 96.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 89.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 95.0%
95.0%
5.0%
Sturm
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Sturm
Wright
Last 6: Sturm 5-1 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
5
0
Sturm
Wright
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
0
1
Sturm
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
39.5% (453)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
0.0% (1)
+54.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +54.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Sturm shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Sturm
Wright
Home
53.0% (168)
39.5% (286)
Away
56.0% (193)
40.1% (227)
By Period
Sturm
Wright
P1
58.2%
39.9%
P2
53.2%
37.1%
P3
52.3%
42.9%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |