Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Novak 43.3% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 68.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 86.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 70.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Sturm
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Sturm
Novak
Last 10: Sturm 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Sturm
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Sturm
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
42.1% (1,539)
+15.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
51.9% (133)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
50.0% (2)
+1.0%
On even strength, Sturm has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Sturm
Novak
Home
57.1% (1,614)
45.3% (814)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Sturm
Novak
P1
56.5%
43.9%
P2
54.9%
42.8%
P3
57.4%
41.7%
OT
60.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.9%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 13:31 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 10:48 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |