Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Boyd on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Boyd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Boyd 44.1% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Boyd leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Boyd 77.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 61.1%
Neutral zone
Boyd 58.6%
Result
Travis Boyd favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Sturm
Boyd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Sturm
Boyd
Last 10: Sturm 6-4 Boyd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boyd
0
5
Sturm
Boyd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
1
Sturm
Boyd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Sturm
Boyd
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Boyd
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
44.4% (2,186)
+12.7%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
46.5% (256)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
35.6% (208)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Boyd shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Boyd is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,838).
Home / Away
Sturm
Boyd
Home
57.1% (1,614)
46.3% (1,327)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
41.5% (1,324)
By Period
Sturm
Boyd
P1
56.5%
41.7%
P2
54.9%
46.2%
P3
57.4%
44.0%
OT
60.6%
22.2%
Final 5 min
56.9%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Boyd
50.0%▲
48.0%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 04:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 10:45 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 07:29 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 08:09 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 18:05 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 12:31 | Defensive | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 01:29 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 3 | 14:00 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 1 | 14:32 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |