Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 56.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 54.1% vs Johnston 48.1% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 61.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 60.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Sturm
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Sturm
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (233)
47.2% (458)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (74)
51.6% (31)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Sturm is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Sturm shoots left. Johnston is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (408).
Home / Away
Sturm
Johnston
Home
54.4% (149)
47.7% (243)
Away
56.3% (158)
47.8% (301)
By Period
Sturm
Johnston
P1
57.1%
48.0%
P2
55.0%
48.2%
P3
53.7%
48.0%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.8%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |