Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Johnston 49.1% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 74.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 94.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 88.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 85.8%
85.8%
14.2%
Sturm
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
5
(18 meetings)
13
5
Sturm
Johnston
Last 10: Sturm 6-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
3
Sturm
Johnston
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
6
2
Sturm
Johnston
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
49.3% (2,189)
+7.8%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
52.6% (173)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
44.7% (237)
+6.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,967).
Home / Away
Sturm
Johnston
Home
57.1% (1,614)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Sturm
Johnston
P1
56.5%
50.1%
P2
54.9%
48.3%
P3
57.4%
48.8%
OT
60.6%
51.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 01:01 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 5, 2024 | OT | 00:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 07:10 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |