Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Sturm wins 67.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Johnston 50.1% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 79.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 76.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 82.9%
82.9%
17.1%
Sturm
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Sturm
Johnston
Last 10: Sturm 7-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
3
Sturm
Johnston
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
1
Sturm
Johnston
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
50.7% (552)
+9.9%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
61.5% (13)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
43.5% (69)
+12.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Sturm shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Sturm
Johnston
Home
61.6% (451)
50.3% (342)
Away
58.2% (376)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Sturm
Johnston
P1
55.9%
54.4%
P2
58.9%
47.2%
P3
64.6%
49.4%
OT
70.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 01:01 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 5, 2024 | OT | 00:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |