Scouting Report
Alexander Kerfoot holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 48.0% vs Roy 47.2% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kerfoot 55.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 71.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 57.2%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Kerfoot
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kerfoot
Roy
Last 6: Kerfoot 1-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
4
Kerfoot
Roy
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Kerfoot
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (595)
47.5% (617)
+2.9%
Power Play
45.2% (124)
39.6% (53)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (143)
46.4% (97)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Kerfoot is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (334).
Kerfoot shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Roy
Home
51.4% (467)
47.2% (398)
Away
43.5% (395)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Kerfoot
Roy
P1
49.1%
48.6%
P2
42.4%
48.8%
P3
52.7%
43.9%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
47.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 16:50 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:43 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 03:13 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |