Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Roy 47.9% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 68.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 92.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 67.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Tkachuk
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tkachuk
Roy
Last 5: Tkachuk 1-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Tkachuk
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Tkachuk
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
48.6% (679)
+2.4%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
48.0% (50)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
34.7% (49)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Tkachuk is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Tkachuk shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Roy
Home
50.0% (140)
49.3% (345)
Away
52.2% (207)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Tkachuk
Roy
P1
54.3%
47.6%
P2
50.0%
47.1%
P3
49.5%
47.9%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |