Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 48.0%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Roy 48.3% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 83.8%
Defensive zone
Roy 71.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Nelson
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Nelson
Roy
Last 7: Nelson 6-1 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
48.3% (633)
-1.4%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
52.1% (48)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
43.7% (87)
-18.7%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Nelson
Roy
Home
48.9% (521)
50.8% (376)
Away
45.5% (516)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Nelson
Roy
P1
45.9%
53.8%
P2
48.0%
43.5%
P3
48.0%
46.4%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 06:15 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |