Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.4%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Roy 48.4% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 21-13 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 50.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Nelson
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
13
(34 meetings)
21
13
Nelson
Roy
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
12
1
Nelson
Roy
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
5
Nelson
Roy
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
3
7
Nelson
Roy
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.7% (3,719)
-0.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
49.5% (283)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
45.5% (477)
-1.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Nelson
Roy
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Nelson
Roy
P1
48.7%
50.8%
P2
48.5%
46.3%
P3
47.7%
48.1%
OT
45.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:31 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 06:15 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 16:39 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:57 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |