Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Roy 47.9% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 93.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 72.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 82.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 84.5%
84.5%
15.5%
Larkin
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Larkin
Roy
Last 6: Larkin 5-1 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
48.6% (679)
+4.0%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
48.0% (50)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
34.7% (49)
+21.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Larkin
Roy
Home
54.7% (783)
49.3% (345)
Away
54.3% (816)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Larkin
Roy
P1
55.9%
47.6%
P2
56.1%
47.1%
P3
51.1%
47.9%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:38 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |