Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Roy 48.3% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 89.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 77.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 77.4%
22.6%
77.4%
Tavares
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Tavares
Roy
Last 7: Tavares 2-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
3
Tavares
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Tavares
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
48.3% (633)
+9.2%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
52.1% (48)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
43.7% (87)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Tavares is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Tavares shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Tavares
Roy
Home
61.0% (661)
50.8% (376)
Away
55.3% (584)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Tavares
Roy
P1
58.6%
53.8%
P2
57.8%
43.5%
P3
58.4%
46.4%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |