Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Roy 51.9% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 64.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 82.9%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 67.9%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
Stenlund
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Stenlund
Roy
Last 8: Stenlund 6-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
2
Stenlund
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (605)
51.9% (545)
+4.3%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
54.1% (37)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (305)
53.3% (92)
-1.5%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Stenlund is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Stenlund shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Roy
Home
57.0% (446)
54.0% (328)
Away
52.6% (511)
50.6% (346)
By Period
Stenlund
Roy
P1
55.4%
53.3%
P2
53.2%
51.8%
P3
56.2%
51.6%
Final 5 min
57.2%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
58.0%
54.6%
Roy
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 02:58 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:25 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |