Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 65.7% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.4% vs Roy 47.9% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 54.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 70.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 65.4%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Kastelic
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Kastelic
Roy
Last 7: Kastelic 4-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Kastelic
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (345)
48.6% (679)
+6.8%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
48.0% (50)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
34.7% (49)
+0.6%
On even strength, Kastelic has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Kastelic is 65.7% vs right-shot opponents (67).
Kastelic shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Roy
Home
50.6% (162)
49.3% (345)
Away
57.4% (204)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Kastelic
Roy
P1
61.5%
47.6%
P2
52.8%
47.1%
P3
50.0%
47.9%
Final 5 min
46.5%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:24 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |