Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Roy 47.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 92.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 54.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 62.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 74.8%
25.2%
74.8%
Dowd
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Dowd
Roy
Last 6: Dowd 1-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
3
Dowd
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Dowd
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
48.6% (679)
+3.6%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
48.0% (50)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
34.7% (49)
+9.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Dowd shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Dowd
Roy
Home
51.5% (619)
49.3% (345)
Away
48.1% (576)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Dowd
Roy
P1
51.7%
47.6%
P2
51.6%
47.1%
P3
47.0%
47.9%
OT
22.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:12 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 02:04 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |