Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Roy wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs Thompson 43.8% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 64.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 90.1%
Neutral zone
Roy 72.2%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Roy
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Roy
Thompson
Last 7: Roy 6-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
4
1
Roy
Thompson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
43.3% (735)
+5.0%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
50.0% (26)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
36.5% (52)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Roy is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (218).
Roy shoots right. Thompson is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Roy
Thompson
Home
50.8% (376)
44.5% (407)
Away
45.4% (392)
41.6% (406)
By Period
Roy
Thompson
P1
53.8%
44.4%
P2
43.5%
44.8%
P3
46.4%
40.2%
OT
75.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.2%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 02:47 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:44 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |