Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Thompson 42.8% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 75.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 94.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 85.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Roy
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
4
(16 meetings)
12
4
Roy
Thompson
Last 10: Roy 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
0
Roy
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
4
1
Roy
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
5
3
Roy
Thompson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
42.9% (3,521)
+5.8%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
46.8% (372)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
33.6% (265)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Roy shoots right. Thompson is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,147).
Home / Away
Roy
Thompson
Home
49.5% (2,221)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Roy
Thompson
P1
50.8%
44.5%
P2
46.3%
43.6%
P3
48.1%
40.2%
OT
50.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
47.2%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 11:17 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 01:54 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 17:24 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 16:25 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 02:47 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:44 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 16:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |