Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Nosek 53.6% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 63.0%
Defensive zone
Nosek 63.8%
Neutral zone
Nosek 60.3%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Roy
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Roy
Nosek
Last 7: Roy 4-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Roy
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
3
0
Roy
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
54.9% (2,674)
-6.2%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
44.7% (47)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
47.4% (424)
-1.9%
On even strength, Nosek has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Roy
Nosek
Home
49.5% (2,221)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Roy
Nosek
P1
50.8%
52.3%
P2
46.3%
54.0%
P3
48.1%
54.6%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2024 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 19:07 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |